Navigating Uncertainty in Advanced Air Mobility: Scenario Planning for Policy Pathways at San Francisco International Airport

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) includes innovative aviation technologies and services that could alter how people and goods are transported. However, future AAM growth and potential regional integration are uncertain and influenced by a range of factors. In this paper, we report findings from expert interviews (n = 35) and a scenario planning workshop (n = 32 stakeholders), conducted between August 2024 and July 2025, to explore potential alternative futures for AAM at the San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and the greater San Francisco Bay Area. We applied a two-axis framework: regulatory environment (supportive vs. restrictive) and economic conditions (vibrant vs. stagnant). Building on this, we developed four plausible scenarios for the 2025 to 2030 and post-2030 time horizons. We apply the SPELT (social, political, economic, legal, technological) framework to assess cross-cutting drivers, tensions, and indicators across the four scenarios based on two timeframes, i.e., 2025 to 2030 and post-2030. Our analysis of the scenarios reveals that regulatory clarity and macroeconomic conditions are key influencers that define the pace and scale of AAM growth, while community impacts (e.g., noise), public acceptance, and infrastructure availability are constraints. These factors largely determine whether technical readiness can translate into scaled deployment. Cross-cutting themes across all of the scenarios consistently shape the outcomes: (1) equity and community acceptance strongly influence political feasibility; (2) SFO and other airports can serve dual roles as conveners and practical enablers but face risks of stranded assets; and (3) flexible, modular infrastructure and incremental investment strategies reduce uncertainty for SFO and other Bay Area airports and public agencies. Together, the findings suggest that while the future of AAM is uncertain, policy and planning responses can assist airports, local governments, and other public agencies in preparing for potential developments.